CURRENCY MOVES AND TRENDS FOR NOVEMBER 2007
Posted by Allison on 24 March 2009, 09:32
The USD had some big moves against the other major currencies in November. There have already been serious dollar declines in recent months, but they show no sign of stopping as further US interest rate cuts may be on the cards.
The white-hot Chinese economy meant that against the USD the Chinese Yuan hit a record of 7.4 to the dollar. This trend looks set to continue as the US has openly stated that it would like China to revalue the Yuan higher.
Against the GBP the USD hit a massive $2.11 to the pound by the 8th, only to pull back a little down to about $2.06 by month end.
The slow and steady fall of the USD against the Euro did not stop either with €1 buying just over $1.45 at the start of November and over $1.46 by the end.
The USD/JPY continued its slide from recent months from a starting point of around 113 yen to the dollar down below 108 at one point. Rates recovered to around the 111 mark by month end.
Against the Swiss Franc, another important carry trade currency, the dollar went as low as 1.10 to the USD by the 26th, before rebounding to 1.13 by month end.
The credit crunch claimed more casualties as some big companies parted ways with their bosses, and balance sheet assets were devalued. While this may not be good for trade, per say, it has meant continuing FX opportunities. People remain risk-averse and continue to repatriate funds and seek safe-havens for the money. As such investors continue move money from one currency to another, creating sizeable FX movements.
The pound also fell against the other big players last month. One of the biggest FX movers of November being against the GBP versus the Yen. Back at the start of November £1 would buy you about 240 JPY by the end of the month £1 was only worth about 227 Yen, but it had been as low as 223 Yen at one point.
The Pound's drop looked less steep against the Euro, falling from approx €1.43 to the £1 down to about €1.40. future interest rate decisions by the ECB and the BoE will have a big impact on future FX moves.
Over the last few years the Euro has been steadily appreciating against the Yen, but recent months have been turbulent. The Euro fell against the Yen, but not by as much as some other currencies. The Euro was buying about 166 Yen at the start of the month and was down to about 162 Yen at the end of November, but in mid November the Euro had dipped as low as 159.