Posted by Allison on 28 April 2009, 11:27
So here we are back with some determination and the desire to actually do well again this time around, as far as the British pound is concerned. And after last week we do have the impetus within us to hope for another round of good results, don’t we?
If you remember, last time saw an improvement by the British pound when it went up against four of the five major currencies that we always take a look at. In the case of the New Zealand dollar we actually managed to add over six cents onto our exchange rate against them. The only currency we slipped up against was the Australian dollar, but even then over the course of a week we only lost out on 0.0029 as a whole. That wasn’t much to cry over was it – especially when you compare those results against the ones we had been bringing home on previous weeks, not so long ago.
The big question now is whether the last two or three weeks of pretty good results are just a blip in the overall pattern we have been seeing. Are we destined to turn things around now and see some renewed strength in the British pound? Or is this simply a momentary (if desirable) burst of energy that isn’t destined to last?
We got extremely close to regaining the $1.50 territory we were looking for against the US dollar last week. The midweek figure was 1.4933 before we slipped back again. So which way will things go this week, we wonder?
Let’s put an end to the speculating and check out the results to find out.
So here we are at the start of another round of results. The previous Friday, at the end of the second shortened Easter week, we were looking at an exchange rate of 1.4791. What could we do this time – and which currency, the British pound or the US dollar, would come out on top?
Well if we were looking for a good strong start to the new week of trading, we certainly didn’t get it. By the time the markets closed again on Monday evening, the exchange rate stood at 1.4575. That meant we had lost over two cents in a single day. If we had been hoping to regain that $1.50 territory that hope had effectively been shattered in just a single day.
So what did the rest of the week hold for us? Would it be downhill from here on in or could we regain some ground?
Tuesday’s result didn’t look too promising, and it certainly didn’t allow us to claw back any of Monday’s losses. At least the lower figure wasn’t too much lower though, as we finished on 1.4553 for the day.
The midweek point brought a tiny bit of good news – if you can call it that, although it does sound desperate – as the pound rallied slightly and finished on an exchange rate of 1.4576. But it was almost to be expected that the following day brought another bad result and pushed the pound back down again. As everyone headed home on that day we were staring at a rate of 1.4551, wondering whether we would ever get back up to the $1.50 mark again. We got extremely close the week before, but now it almost seemed like a taunt rather than an actual achievement.
So with one day left for this week it was clear that we weren’t going to see any spectacular gains. What mattered was whether we would be able to finish on any kind of good news at all.
And as it happened, we did. The final exchange rate as the weekend drew upon us was recorded as 1.4604. That meant we had still lost out over the week as a whole, but not perhaps as badly as we could have done, had we not rallied somewhat on that last day. A loss of just under two cents was what we had to face up to now.
So let’s leave the US dollar behind and head across the water to see how the pound did against the Euro. Last time we did well and finished on 1.1327 for the week, so what would happen this time?
Once again we didn’t get off to a good start. Monday came and went quickly enough and we were left looking at a weaker exchange rate against the Euro, of 1.1241. Were we going to see the same pattern against the Euro for the week as we had against the US dollar?
Tuesday gave us an increase to get us thinking, but only a very small one. We managed to push up to 1.1253 by the close of play, but that didn’t exactly give us much to get excited about. There were three days left to go, and with a drop on Monday we were wondering whether we could actually gain any more ground at all this week. It wasn’t exactly looking promising at all.
And so we move on to the midweek point, where once again we managed to add just a tiny amount to the exchange rate. By the end of the day it had crept up to 1.1258, leaving us doubtful that this would be a good week against the Euro. But was that just negative thinking… or was there more to come?
If negative thinking could bring negative results, then perhaps that was why Thursday’s result was so disappointing. We lost further ground then and finished up on 1.1150, pulling back further from the position we had ended the previous week in. What would happen on the last day of the week, as it looked like we were in for another loss overall?
As it happened it looked as though the pound all but gave up completely. By the close of play when the week came to an end as far as trading was concerned, the final exchange rate had dropped to 1.1037. That equated to a loss over the week as a whole of nearly three Eurocents. Would we end up losing more again the next week, or could we regain some of what we had lost this time around? We’ll see.
But in the meantime let’s move on to see how things progressed last week in Hong Kong. We did manage to make a small improvement over the week before, but last time we finished up on 11.463. Could we edge over the 11.500 mark or would we be beaten down here too?
But wouldn’t you know it - we had a bad day to start the week on Monday. As trading came to an end on that day, the British pound was standing at 11.296 against the Hong Kong dollar. Was this going to be another tale which went downhill towards a bad ending?
It definitely seemed that way. There was another drop on Tuesday that left the pound sitting on 11.278, and while Wednesday brought better news it wasn’t that spectacular. By the end of that day we were on 11.297.
So what would the remaining two days have in store for us? Well Thursday wasn’t a good day as we finished up on 11.277, but if we felt like we were settling into an unwanted trough of results here, there was a surprise in store.
Friday eventually came to a close with the pound putting up something of a fight for once. As the markets closed the exchange rate finally stood at 11.318 – an encouraging jump up from the rest of the week that had preceded it, and what’s more it meant we hadn’t lost quite as much during the week as we would otherwise have done. We still lost 0.145 overall, but it could have been a lot worse had we not experienced that little jump up at the last minute.
So on we go on our journey around the world’s major currencies, and we stop this time in New Zealand. We did really well here last week and finished up on 2.5930, but with the bad results we have bagged this time around so far, would we be in for another bad result here as well?
Well Monday actually kicked off the week in good style for once. By the time everyone headed home the exchange rate stood slightly higher at 2.6021. Things got slightly better still on Tuesday as it improved to the stage of 2.6273. But would the rest of the week continue in this fashion, or were we being lulled into a false sense of security?
As it turned out, the latter was true. We dropped back to 2.6197 as Wednesday came to a close, and there was more bad news in store as well. A significant drop in the pound’s fortunes was to come on Thursday, as the pound finished the day on an exchange rate against the New Zealand dollar of 2.5934. With just one day left, it wasn’t looking too hopeful to get a great result to finish this week, just as we had last week.
And indeed that would prove to be the case, as the final exchange rate for the week saw the New Zealand dollar get the upper hand. We ended up on 2.5710, meaning we had lost a little over two cents since last week.
So where did we stand with the Aussie dollar then? This was actually the only currency we lost ground against the previous week, and with a raft of bad results so far this time, could it once again be the odd one out and get us a good result instead?
From a starting point of 2.0531, we did well on day one and managed to get things up a little further to 2.0667. And on day two - Tuesday – we did even better as we upped the exchange rate against the Australian dollar to 2.0829.
But we have already seen that we can do well on the first few days, before falling back to get worse rates at the end of the week. And indeed Wednesday certainly made this look possible, with a closing rate which was much lower, at 2.0682.
So what did the remaining two days have to tell us? Well, Thursday fell back further to 2.0410, and if the word ‘freefall’ was beginning to touch the corners of our minds, then Friday’s final figure didn’t do a lot to make it go away. The final figure for the week was 2.0311, which was a little over two cents down on the week before.
So it wasn’t exactly a great week for the pound. And if we thought that last time could have been the start of a revitalised pound, we may well have proved ourselves wrong this time around.
The US dollar has pounded the Euro somewhat lately, but that changed last week as the Euro finally came back fighting. It may have a way to go yet to be stronger overall, but at least it finally had a pretty good week to celebrate.
Some people are actually starting to report that Germany could be on the rebound after hitting rock bottom in the recession. It would certainly be good news if they were on the way back up again, but many countries are still struggling.
It may have been at 1.4180 at the close of play on Monday, but just four days later the US dollar was standing at 1.3907 against the Australian dollar. This hasn’t been the best of weeks for the US currency.
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So there we are at the end of another week’s worth of reporting. And it wasn’t a good week this time around. Maybe next time we will have better results to give you, but it certainly seems as if last week’s good results weren’t destined to continue for any length of time. Fingers crossed for better ones next week – and we’ll see you then.