Will the Euro Start Dropping Against the US Dollar Again?

Posted by Allison on 20 September 2016, 16:09

The past few months have been somewhat turbulent on the currency markets, no matter where you looked. However, while many eyes have been on the British pound following the Brexit vote, how has the euro stood up to one of the biggest currencies of them all – the US dollar? Would it have an encouraging month in September, or would it struggle to gain any ground?

The last day of August saw the euro finish on 1.1132 against the American currency. The first couple of days in September were certainly good for the euro, as it moved steadily northwards to claim a week-ending rate of 1.1193 on Friday 2nd September. We were but two days into the month though, so where would we go from here?

The following week did not start as well for the euro, as it fell to 1.1156 on Monday alone. However, this was followed by three strong days of trading which took the euro to 1.1296 by Thursday night – a rise of 0.014 over the course of just three days. While it did slip back to 1.1268 on Friday evening, this still represented a pretty good week all in all. Clearly the US dollar had some more work to do if it was going to achieve anything of note through the following week.

Indeed, the next full week in September was an up-and-down affair. We saw a fall followed by a rise followed by a fall, and on it went throughout the entire week. Clearly there would be no real winner here, as the two currencies went head-to-head in a big way. The opening rate was of course 1.1268 and Friday night ended up on 1.1226, so the euro did lose out in the end.

At the time of writing though, the first day of the next week – Monday 19th September – saw the euro drop back to 1.1165. This was quite a drop – a 0.543% drop over the previous rate that had closed out the week before. So could this be the start of a rougher time for the euro, at least where the US dollar is concerned? The markets have been marked by a particularly rough period this year, with many currencies struggling to gain any ground. The British pound is by far the hardest hit at the moment, but it remains to be seen whether this pattern continues.

One thing is certain though – while the euro might be stronger than the pound, it isn’t having as much luck against the US dollar. This is perhaps to be expected, but it will be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. Will the euro pick up somewhat? It is, after all, doing better than it was to start the month. Or will it be hard-pushed to achieve anything better at all?